Hollywood Boulevard is closed, the red carpet is being rolled out and the Oscars are almost here. In anticipation for the biggest night in Hollywood we’ve taken a look at the pre-Oscars conversation to see if the internet is in tune with the academy.
While we also looked at intent-to-win, the global conversation rankings remained consistent for most categories. Where there were differences- we’ve looked at them more closely.
There were 358,432 total global mentions for all 9 of the Best Picture nominees. La La Land dominated the conversation, receiving more than twice as many mentions as Moonlight, the second most mentioned Best Picture nominee, making it the clear winner in terms of Oscars social buzz.
When we compare the social winners against other Oscar predictions, like that of FiveThirtyEight who base their predictions based on the results of other award shows (and not social buzz), we see that our predictions match theirs.
There was 114,221 total global mentions for Best Actress nominees. However if it were called today based on the which nominee received the most mentions then Emma Stone would be this year’s winner for her performance in La La Land.
For Best Actor there were 103,008 total mentions for the nominees. Ryan Gosling and Denzel Washington were neck-and-neck for the top honor, however Gosling had the edge by only 772 mentions.
But when we look at Intent-To-Win we have our first major shakeup. Ryan Gosling falls to 3rd, being replaced by Casey Affleck as the leading choice for Best Actor. When we look at other Oscar predictions, our Intent-To-Win formula aligns with the leading contender for Best Actor, Casey Affleck.
While the leading candidate for Best Director at this year’s Oscars is Damien Chazelle (who won the award at the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Directors Guild, etc), Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge is the leading contender according to social conversation. When we examine Intent-To-Win Barry Jenkins for Moonlight is the favorite for Best Director.
While Mel Gibson might sound like a dark horse in the race for Best Director, he is the most well known household name, so discussion for Gibson is higher than for the other directors who are less well known amongst mainstream audiences. (Fans who liked Whiplash may know that La La Land is from the same director, but many do not identify Damien Chazelle by name).
There were 169,990 total mentions between all the Best Supporting Actor and Actress nominees. For Best Supporting Actress Viola Davis was the most mentioned actress for her role in Fences. For Best Supporting Actor Dev Patel was the most mentioned for his performance in Lion. When we look at Intent-To-Win both actors also top their categories.
Best Animated Feature Film
Disney’s two Best Animated Feature Film nominees received the most mentions, with Zootopia taking the top spot with 15.5K global mentions. When we look at Intent-To-Win Zootopia remains the leading title for Best Animated Feature Film, closely followed by Kubo and the Two Strings.
Following the Oscars we will be releasing our annual Social Oscars infographic that will look at the impact the Academy Awards have on social. Some of the questions that we’ll be answering are:
- Does winning an Oscar have an impact on the number of Facebook page likes a film page recieves?
- Does Oscar buzz translate into Oscar wins?
- Who were the most discussed fashion designers on the red carpet?
- How many people used the #Oscar hashtag in 2016 vs 2017?
- How did TV viewership compare to last year?
- How did people enjoy the host, Jimmy Kimmel?
- What were the top 5 social moments?